Daily Market Profile scan · Nifty 50

The index is +0.6% from its 6-month POC.

9 of 50 Nifty constituents are trading below value today — 0 of them deeply oversold. Here's the full structural picture: spot vs POC, value areas, and the mean-reversion tiers.

Data as of 09 Jul 2026 close (IST)

Last updated 09 Jul 2026, 11:42 IST

Nifty 50 spot

24,074.7

last close

6-month POC

23,940.5

fair-value anchor

Distance from POC

+0.6%

at value (POC)

Oversold names

9 / 50

0 deeply oversold

View full Nifty 50 detail — POC chart, value area & signal history →

📊 Today's read

Nifty sits at 24,075 — about 0.6% ABOVE its 6-month POC (23,940), so the index itself reads MID, not oversold, after a fourth straight up-week. Breadth is thin on the oversold side: only 9 of 49 names are in Q1 and none are Q1_DEEP, so this is a shallow dislocation day rather than a broad mean-reversion setup. The names that are stretched skew to the weak end of the tier (IT), while the cleaner setups (Reliance, Tata Steel) are only moderately below POC. Q1 earnings season opens tonight with TCS — the first real volatility event of the week.

Nifty 50 POC distance heatmap, 09 Jul 2026 — Each tile shows a constituent's distance from its 6-month POC. Cooler/deeper = more oversold.

Oversold watch — Q1 & Q1·DEEP

Constituents in the oversold quantile tiers, deepest first. These are the names the mean-reversion method watches. "Setup" is position-blind backtest-tier quality, not a recommendation. Stats are historical, not predictions.

#	Stock	Signal	Setup	Spot	6M POC	% from POC	Upside to POC	Value area (VAL–VAH)	Hist 60d hit	Hist 60d ret	Opt liq
1	TCS	Q1	LOW	₹2,035	₹2,405	-18.2%	+18.2%	2,096.7 – 2,723.3	53%	+1.5%	HIGH
2	WIPRO	Q1	LOW	₹173.2	₹203.5	-17.5%	+17.5%	176.6 – 220.4	48%	+1.1%	MED
3	TATASTEEL	Q1	MODERATE	₹187.6	₹210.3	-12.1%	+12.1%	192.7 – 217.1	64%	+7.1%	MED
4	RELIANCE	Q1	MODERATE	₹1,287	₹1,401	-8.9%	+8.9%	1,313.5 – 1,428.5	72%	+9.7%	HIGH
5	ONGC	Q1	LOW	₹245.3	₹265.0	-8.0%	+8.0%	258.6 – 298.3	59%	+3.9%	MED
6	POWERGRID	Q1	—	₹282.4	₹300.4	-6.4%	+6.4%	281.5 – 306.2	58%	+2.8%	MED
7	NTPC	Q1	—	₹346.4	₹366.7	-5.9%	+5.9%	357.8 – 403.0	63%	+3.9%	MED
8	ITC	Q1	LOW	₹282.9	₹296.2	-4.7%	+4.7%	286.6 – 311.0	60%	+2.6%	HIGH
9	COALINDIA	Q1	—	₹431.7	₹443.1	-2.6%	+2.6%	428.9 – 467.1	58%	+1.4%	MED

Today's read on the deepest setups

Position-blind notes on the most-stretched names — what the structure shows, recent news, and the key risk. Setup quality only; not a recommendation and not portfolio advice.

RELIANCEMODERATE

Structure: Spot ~1,287 vs 6M POC ~1,401 (-8.9%). Best historical hit-rate x forward-return profile on today's board (~72% hit, ~+9.7% mean 60d move).

News: AGM (Jun 19) and Rs6 dividend already passed — no pending binary; Q1 FY27 results expected ~3rd week of July.

Key risk: Q1 print later in July could reset the range; energy/retail margin mix the swing factor.

TATASTEELMODERATE

Structure: Spot ~188 vs POC ~210 (-12.1%), expected 60d move ~+7.1%. Cleanest fundamental backdrop of the oversold names.

News: Q4 net +147% YoY, Rs4 dividend paid Jul 6, Kalinganagar capacity ramp guiding +2mt volume in FY27.

Key risk: Global steel prices / China demand remain the macro overhang.

TCSLOW

Structure: Deepest Q1 on the board (-18.2% from POC) but the weakest historical stats in the tier (~53% hit, ~+1.5% mean 60d).

News: Q1 FY27 results TONIGHT (Jul 9, post-close); Street expects flat revenue and wage-hike margin pressure; possible interim dividend (record ~Jul 15).

Key risk: Earnings tonight = IV crush + gap risk; a soft FY27 guide would extend the IT derate.

WIPROLOW

Structure: -17.5% from POC but sub-50% historical hit-rate — no demonstrated edge at this depth.

News: Part of the broad IT derate; Q1 results mid-July.

Key risk: IT-wide sentiment; weak-tier signal with no catalyst.

ONGCLOW

Structure: -8.0% from POC, modest expected 60d move (~+3.9%). Energy complex, shallow dislocation.

Key risk: Crude and US-Iran headlines drive the tape more than the structure here.

ITCLOW

Structure: -4.7% from POC — shallow. Post-demerger base means the POC reference can carry a rebasing artifact; treat depth cautiously.

Key risk: Barely-oversold; limited mean-reversion edge.

Events on the radar

Dividends, earnings and macro dates that can move these names or their option pricing over the next ~90 days.

Stock	Event	Date	Type	Magnitude	Impact
TCS	Q1 FY27 results + possible interim dividend	Jul 9 (post-close), record ~Jul 15	Earnings	MEDIUM	IV crush + gap risk across IT; first big print of the season.
RELIANCE	Q1 FY27 results	~3rd week Jul	Earnings	MEDIUM	Range-reset risk; AGM + dividend already behind it.
TATASTEEL	Rs4 final dividend	Ex Jun 12 / paid Jul 6	Dividend	SMALL	Already ex-dividend — no residual option-pricing effect.
NIFTY	Q1 earnings season + monsoon/crude/US-Iran macro	Through July	Macro	MEDIUM	Swing factors for index IV; no RBI policy this week.

Full Nifty 50 scan

Every constituent, sorted most-oversold to most-extended. Spot, 6-month POC and value-area bounds for all 50 names.

Show all 50 names

Stock	Signal	Spot	6M POC	% from POC	VAL	VAH
TCS	Q1	₹2,035	₹2,405	-18.2%	₹2,097	₹2,723
WIPRO	Q1	₹173.2	₹203.5	-17.5%	₹176.6	₹220.4
TATASTEEL	Q1	₹187.6	₹210.3	-12.1%	₹192.7	₹217.1
INFY	MID	₹1,048	₹1,150	-9.7%	₹1,070	₹1,397
RELIANCE	Q1	₹1,287	₹1,401	-8.9%	₹1,313	₹1,429
ONGC	Q1	₹245.3	₹265.0	-8.0%	₹258.6	₹298.3
HDFCLIFE	MID	₹554.5	₹597.0	-7.7%	₹543.0	₹697.8
POWERGRID	Q1	₹282.4	₹300.4	-6.4%	₹281.5	₹306.2
TMPV	MID	₹331.4	₹350.9	-5.9%	₹331.8	₹382.7
NTPC	Q1	₹346.4	₹366.7	-5.9%	₹357.8	₹403.0
ITC	Q1	₹282.9	₹296.2	-4.7%	₹286.6	₹311.0
JIOFIN	MID	₹233.1	₹242.7	-4.1%	₹227.7	₹252.8
AXISBANK	MID	₹1,316	₹1,356	-3.0%	₹1,261	₹1,377
COALINDIA	Q1	₹431.7	₹443.1	-2.6%	₹428.9	₹467.1
KOTAKBANK	MID	₹372.4	₹380.1	-2.0%	₹363.8	₹411.2
HCLTECH	MID	₹1,147	₹1,167	-1.8%	₹1,030	₹1,447
SBIN	MID	₹1,027	₹1,041	-1.3%	₹982.0	₹1,116
BEL	MID	₹406.3	₹411.6	-1.3%	₹405.6	₹440.7
ICICIBANK	MID	₹1,391	₹1,400	-0.7%	₹1,272	₹1,430
JSWSTEEL	MID	₹1,228	₹1,234	-0.5%	₹1,197	₹1,304
M&M	MID	₹3,118	₹3,134	-0.5%	₹2,937	₹3,368
LT	MID	₹3,928	₹3,937	-0.2%	₹3,754	₹4,184
HINDUNILVR	MID	₹2,154	₹2,158	-0.2%	₹2,060	₹2,336
TECHM	MID	₹1,421	₹1,423	-0.1%	₹1,301	₹1,471
HINDALCO	MID	₹960.8	₹961.7	-0.1%	₹884.3	₹1,041
TATACONSUM	MID	₹1,108	₹1,106	+0.2%	₹1,092	₹1,197
DRREDDY	MID	₹1,279	₹1,271	+0.6%	₹1,253	₹1,366
ADANIPORTS	MID	₹1,818	₹1,806	+0.6%	₹1,448	₹1,894
ULTRACEMCO	MID	₹11,520	₹11,400	+1.0%	₹10,863	₹12,406
ASIANPAINT	MID	₹2,712	₹2,665	+1.7%	₹2,391	₹2,775
SBILIFE	MID	₹1,818	₹1,780	+2.1%	₹1,742	₹1,987
ADANIENT	MID	₹3,048	₹2,964	+2.8%	₹2,140	₹3,244
SHRIRAMFIN	MID	₹1,034	₹1,003	+3.1%	₹954.5	₹1,079
EICHERMOT	MID	₹7,379	₹7,120	+3.5%	₹6,802	₹7,466
BAJAJ-AUTO	MID	₹10,175	₹9,789	+3.8%	₹9,358	₹10,396
HDFCBANK	MID	₹819.3	₹785.9	+4.1%	₹729.9	₹870.6
TRENT	MID	₹2,912	₹2,782	+4.5%	₹2,459	₹2,918
BHARTIARTL	MID	₹1,954	₹1,858	+4.9%	₹1,772	₹1,937
MARUTI	MID	₹13,917	₹13,134	+5.6%	₹12,296	₹14,432
BAJAJFINSV	MID	₹1,892	₹1,775	+6.2%	₹1,646	₹1,909
SUNPHARMA	MID	₹1,936	₹1,793	+7.4%	₹1,662	₹1,853
CIPLA	Q5	₹1,440	₹1,326	+7.9%	₹1,294	₹1,441
MAXHEALTH	MID	₹1,109	₹1,013	+8.7%	₹943.6	₹1,055
BAJFINANCE	MID	₹1,007	₹917.9	+8.9%	₹869.2	₹985.2
TITAN	Q5	₹4,584	₹4,091	+10.8%	₹3,989	₹4,386
NESTLEIND	Q5	₹1,471	₹1,300	+11.6%	₹1,161	₹1,410
ETERNAL	MID	₹293.6	₹256.7	+12.6%	₹224.8	₹272.9
APOLLOHOSP	Q5	₹8,884	₹7,752	+12.7%	₹6,735	₹8,076
INDIGO	MID	₹5,214	₹4,518	+13.4%	₹4,115	₹4,866
GRASIM	Q5	₹3,192	₹2,748	+13.9%	₹2,542	₹2,970

Nifty 50 sector stress map, 09 Jul 2026 — Sector stress — share of each sector trading below value.

How to read this

A daily volume-and-time Market Profile scan of the Nifty 50. We measure how far each stock trades from its 6-month Point of Control (POC) — the price where the most activity has occurred — and flag mean-reversion setups.

POC — Point of Control

The single price with the highest traded volume/time over the last 6 months. It acts as a fair-value magnet: price tends to revert toward it.

Value Area (VAL–VAH)

The band containing ~70% of activity, from Value-Area-Low to Value-Area-High. Trading below VAL means a stock is stretched below where the market agreed on value.

Q1 / Q1·DEEP signals

Quantile of a stock's distance-from-POC vs its own history. Q1 = unusually oversold; Q1·DEEP = in the deepest tail. These are the mean-reversion watch tiers.

Q1·DEEP edge

75–80%60-day hit rate

+11%mean 60-day return

From a 49-stock × 5-year backtest.

Q1 edge

64–67%60-day hit rate

+5%mean 60-day return

Shallower tier — lower, but still positive, expectancy.

What this is not

This is scanner output, not a recommendation. It describes structure derived from public prices. It does not account for news, fundamentals, or your risk. Always do your own work.