Daily Market Profile scan · Nifty 50

The index is -9.9% from its 6-month POC.

17 of 50 Nifty constituents are trading below value today — 6 of them deeply oversold. Here's the full structural picture: spot vs POC, value areas, and the mean-reversion tiers.

Data as of 29 May 2026 close (IST)

Last updated 29 May 2026, 16:55 IST

📁 Archived snapshot. See today's scan →

Nifty 50 spot

23,609.3

last close

6-month POC

25,937.4

fair-value anchor

Distance from POC

-9.9%

deeply oversold

Oversold names

17 / 50

6 deeply oversold

View full Nifty 50 detail — POC chart, value area & signal history →

📊 Today's read

Nifty closed at 23,609 — 9.9% below its 6-month POC of 25,937, putting the index in the deep-oversold (Q1_DEEP) tail. Breadth is broad-based weakness: 18 of 50 names sit in the oversold zone, 7 of them deeply. Historically this depth is a 60-day mean-reversion setup, but the bank-heavy tail is gated by the RBI MPC outcome on Jun 5 (consensus: hold at 5.25%). Depth alone is not edge — several of the deepest names show no historical mean-reversion advantage, so quality varies sharply across the oversold list.

Nifty 50 POC distance heatmap, 29 May 2026 — Each tile shows a constituent's distance from its 6-month POC. Cooler/deeper = more oversold.

Oversold watch — Q1 & Q1·DEEP

Constituents in the oversold quantile tiers, deepest first. These are the names the mean-reversion method watches. "Setup" is position-blind backtest-tier quality, not a recommendation. Stats are historical, not predictions.

#	Stock	Signal	Setup	Spot	6M POC	% from POC	Upside to POC	Value area (VAL–VAH)	Hist 60d hit	Hist 60d ret	Opt liq
1	TCS	Q1 · DEEP	MODERATE	₹2,256	₹3,220	-42.7%	+42.7%	2,469.4 – 3,350.0	54%	+1.7%	HIGH
2	HCLTECH	Q1 · DEEP	STRONG	₹1,182	₹1,665	-40.9%	+40.9%	1,361.9 – 1,780.1	67%	+7.9%	MED
3	HDFCBANK	Q1 · DEEP	MODERATE	₹747.2	₹925.6	-23.9%	+23.9%	765.0 – 966.3	66%	+4.7%	HIGH
4	M&M	Q1 · DEEP	STRONG	₹3,065	₹3,630	-18.5%	+18.5%	3,158.4 – 3,807.8	61%	+8.8%	LOW
5	ICICIBANK	Q1 · DEEP	STRONG	₹1,259	₹1,365	-8.4%	+8.4%	1,277.8 – 1,429.5	70%	+6.7%	HIGH
6	BEL	Q1 · DEEP	—	₹412.5	₹438.7	-6.3%	+6.3%	412.6 – 454.7	51%	+2.1%	LOW
7	BAJAJFINSV	Q1	MODERATE	₹1,798	₹2,046	-13.8%	+13.8%	1,783.7 – 2,103.8	72%	+13.6%	MED
8	INDIGO	Q1	—	₹4,425	₹4,966	-12.2%	+12.2%	4,271.2 – 5,063.5	50%	+3.2%	LOW
9	SBIN	Q1	MODERATE	₹965.0	₹1,068	-10.7%	+10.7%	969.4 – 1,115.0	83%	+9.1%	HIGH
10	KOTAKBANK	Q1	—	₹385.6	₹425.2	-10.3%	+10.3%	379.9 – 445.6	76%	+7.0%	HIGH
11	SBILIFE	Q1	—	₹1,839	₹2,016	-9.7%	+9.7%	1,887.2 – 2,105.3	74%	+7.4%	MED
12	ONGC	Q1	—	₹265.9	₹285.1	-7.2%	+7.2%	258.9 – 301.3	59%	+3.6%	MED
13	HINDUNILVR	Q1	—	₹2,162	₹2,308	-6.8%	+6.8%	2,211.5 – 2,433.1	68%	+4.3%	HIGH
14	RELIANCE	Q1	MODERATE	₹1,322	₹1,399	-5.9%	+5.9%	1,329.9 – 1,457.3	75%	+10.3%	HIGH
15	ITC	Q1	BROKEN	₹287.8	₹304.1	-5.7%	+5.7%	294.0 – 332.2	62%	+3.0%	HIGH
16	MAXHEALTH	Q1	—	₹965.0	₹1,014	-5.0%	+5.0%	949.0 – 1,062.2	70%	+8.2%	LOW
17	POWERGRID	Q1	—	₹287.7	₹300.2	-4.4%	+4.4%	281.3 – 323.0	58%	+2.8%	MED

Today's read on the deepest setups

Position-blind notes on the most-stretched names — what the structure shows, recent news, and the key risk. Setup quality only; not a recommendation and not portfolio advice.

HCLTECHSTRONG

Structure: -40.9% below 6M POC, one of the deepest IT dislocations. Historical hit rate 67% with a genuine +4.5pp edge over buy-and-hold at this depth — the cleanest deep-IT setup on the board.

News: May interim dividend already paid; no pending events.

Key risk: IT-sector sentiment derate; risk-off spillover if RBI tone surprises hawkish.

M&MSTRONG

Structure: -18.5% below 6M POC with a solid historical profile (61% hit, +3.7pp edge). Auto/farm leadership intact.

News: Q4 FY26 net profit +42% YoY, beat estimates; final dividend record date Jul 3.

Key risk: Thin option liquidity; auto-demand cyclicality.

ICICIBANKSTRONG

Structure: -8.4% below 6M POC, 70% historical hit rate, and a POC that is trending up — constructive structure.

News: Highest dividend in 12 years declared; Q4 profit +8.5%.

Key risk: RBI Jun 5 is bank-sensitive, though a hold is expected.

TCSMODERATE

Structure: Deepest dislocation on the board at -42.7% below 6M POC — but the historical record is the cautionary tale: at this depth TCS has shown essentially no mean-reversion edge over simply holding. A reminder that the biggest gap is not the best setup.

News: Won a global AI transformation deal (SKF) on May 27; deal momentum positive.

Key risk: Structural IT-sector derate; the gap can persist.

HDFCBANKMODERATE

Structure: -23.9% below 6M POC, a meaningful dislocation with a 66% historical hit rate.

News: Headline risk from a reported probe into ~Rs 45cr of MSRDC-linked payments; ~Rs 13 dividend ex-date around Jun 19.

Key risk: Probe headlines and a dividend in the window argue for patience.

BAJAJFINSVMODERATE

Structure: -13.8% below 6M POC with the best marginal edge in the oversold set (+6.3pp over buy-and-hold) and a 72% historical hit rate.

Key risk: Verify any company-specific ex-dates before the window.

SBINMODERATE

Structure: -10.7% below 6M POC; highest historical hit rate in the set at 83% (+4.3pp edge), and the POC is rising.

News: Annual dividend ex-date already passed (May 15).

Key risk: PSU-bank sensitivity to the RBI outcome.

RELIANCEMODERATE

Structure: -5.9% below 6M POC but a strong historical profile (75% hit, +5.0pp edge).

News: 49th AGM on Jun 19 is a binary catalyst; small dividend record date Jun 5.

Key risk: Better to wait for the AGM tone before leaning in.

ITCBROKEN

Structure: The POC has fallen ~22.9% in 20 days — a discontinuity signature, not ordinary drift. This almost certainly reflects a corporate action rebasing the price series, so the 'oversold' reading is an artifact rather than a real dislocation.

Key risk: Treat the signal as invalid until the corporate action is confirmed.

Events on the radar

Dividends, earnings and macro dates that can move these names or their option pricing over the next ~90 days.

Stock	Event	Date	Type	Magnitude	Impact
MARKET	RBI MPC rate decision	Jun 5	Macro	MEDIUM	Consensus is a hold at 5.25%; a hawkish surprise would pressure the index and rate-sensitive banks.
RELIANCE	49th AGM + dividend record (Rs 6)	Jun 19 / Jun 5	AGM/Dividend	MEDIUM	AGM is a binary catalyst; the small dividend is negligible for option pricing.
HDFCBANK	Dividend Rs 13 ex-date	~Jun 19	Dividend	SMALL	~1.7% of price; modest adjustment to factor into any near-term position.
BEL	QRSAM contract signing	~Jul 2026	Order	LARGE	A large order catalyst, but lands after the near-term option window.

Full Nifty 50 scan

Every constituent, sorted most-oversold to most-extended. Spot, 6-month POC and value-area bounds for all 50 names.

Show all 50 names

Stock	Signal	Spot	6M POC	% from POC	VAL	VAH
TCS	Q1 · DEEP	₹2,256	₹3,220	-42.7%	₹2,469	₹3,350
HCLTECH	Q1 · DEEP	₹1,182	₹1,665	-40.9%	₹1,362	₹1,780
HDFCBANK	Q1 · DEEP	₹747.2	₹925.6	-23.9%	₹765.0	₹966.3
M&M	Q1 · DEEP	₹3,065	₹3,630	-18.5%	₹3,158	₹3,808
BAJAJFINSV	Q1	₹1,798	₹2,046	-13.8%	₹1,784	₹2,104
ETERNAL	MID	₹251.9	₹284.9	-13.1%	₹246.6	₹305.7
INDIGO	Q1	₹4,425	₹4,966	-12.2%	₹4,271	₹5,064
SBIN	Q1	₹965.0	₹1,068	-10.7%	₹969.4	₹1,115
KOTAKBANK	Q1	₹385.6	₹425.2	-10.3%	₹379.9	₹445.6
SBILIFE	Q1	₹1,839	₹2,016	-9.7%	₹1,887	₹2,105
ICICIBANK	Q1 · DEEP	₹1,259	₹1,365	-8.4%	₹1,278	₹1,430
ONGC	Q1	₹265.9	₹285.1	-7.2%	₹258.9	₹301.3
HINDUNILVR	Q1	₹2,162	₹2,308	-6.8%	₹2,211	₹2,433
BEL	Q1 · DEEP	₹412.5	₹438.7	-6.3%	₹412.6	₹454.7
RELIANCE	Q1	₹1,322	₹1,399	-5.9%	₹1,330	₹1,457
ITC	Q1	₹287.8	₹304.1	-5.7%	₹294.0	₹332.2
MAXHEALTH	Q1	₹965.0	₹1,014	-5.0%	₹949.0	₹1,062
SHRIRAMFIN	MID	₹952.7	₹1,000	-5.0%	₹936.2	₹1,071
POWERGRID	Q1	₹287.7	₹300.2	-4.4%	₹281.3	₹323.0
INFY	MID	₹1,156	₹1,175	-1.6%	₹1,089	₹1,596
HDFCLIFE	MID	₹596.5	₹604.6	-1.4%	₹555.1	₹734.5
JIOFIN	MID	₹240.1	₹242.7	-1.1%	₹226.0	₹269.8
ULTRACEMCO	MID	₹11,501	₹11,601	-0.9%	₹11,322	₹12,715
TATACONSUM	MID	₹1,174	₹1,182	-0.7%	₹1,099	₹1,203
BAJFINANCE	MID	₹909.8	₹916.3	-0.7%	₹893.3	₹1,013
BHARTIARTL	MID	₹1,827	₹1,833	-0.3%	₹1,757	₹2,014
WIPRO	MID	₹204.3	₹203.4	+0.4%	₹186.5	₹241.7
TITAN	MID	₹4,111	₹4,086	+0.6%	₹3,891	₹4,301
LT	MID	₹4,090	₹4,060	+0.7%	₹3,816	₹4,189
JSWSTEEL	MID	₹1,284	₹1,272	+0.9%	₹1,160	₹1,296
EICHERMOT	MID	₹7,212	₹7,125	+1.2%	₹6,853	₹7,425
MARUTI	MID	₹13,200	₹13,018	+1.4%	₹12,253	₹15,271
TECHM	MID	₹1,480	₹1,459	+1.4%	₹1,318	₹1,587
AXISBANK	MID	₹1,291	₹1,271	+1.6%	₹1,222	₹1,351
TRENT	MID	₹4,240	₹4,090	+3.5%	₹3,811	₹4,329
DRREDDY	MID	₹1,320	₹1,271	+3.7%	₹1,240	₹1,336
SUNPHARMA	MID	₹1,804	₹1,720	+4.7%	₹1,686	₹1,842
CIPLA	MID	₹1,400	₹1,325	+5.4%	₹1,237	₹1,472
NTPC	MID	₹389.0	₹367.6	+5.5%	₹352.1	₹407.9
COALINDIA	MID	₹458.3	₹431.0	+6.0%	₹415.8	₹463.4
BAJAJ-AUTO	MID	₹10,472	₹9,786	+6.5%	₹8,938	₹9,928
TATASTEEL	MID	₹210.2	₹194.9	+7.3%	₹179.8	₹211.7
NESTLEIND	Q5	₹1,443	₹1,306	+9.5%	₹1,186	₹1,325
ASIANPAINT	Q5	₹2,688	₹2,430	+9.6%	₹2,347	₹2,831
TMPV	MID	₹395.0	₹355.9	+9.9%	₹335.0	₹377.3
GRASIM	Q5	₹3,125	₹2,747	+12.1%	₹2,711	₹2,947
APOLLOHOSP	Q5	₹8,224	₹7,081	+13.9%	₹7,004	₹7,772
ADANIPORTS	Q5	₹1,809	₹1,509	+16.6%	₹1,339	₹1,580
HINDALCO	Q5	₹1,133	₹933.0	+17.7%	₹810.0	₹990.0
ADANIENT	Q5	₹2,940	₹2,230	+24.2%	₹1,888	₹2,337

Nifty 50 sector stress map, 29 May 2026 — Sector stress — share of each sector trading below value.

How to read this

A daily volume-and-time Market Profile scan of the Nifty 50. We measure how far each stock trades from its 6-month Point of Control (POC) — the price where the most activity has occurred — and flag mean-reversion setups.

POC — Point of Control

The single price with the highest traded volume/time over the last 6 months. It acts as a fair-value magnet: price tends to revert toward it.

Value Area (VAL–VAH)

The band containing ~70% of activity, from Value-Area-Low to Value-Area-High. Trading below VAL means a stock is stretched below where the market agreed on value.

Q1 / Q1·DEEP signals

Quantile of a stock's distance-from-POC vs its own history. Q1 = unusually oversold; Q1·DEEP = in the deepest tail. These are the mean-reversion watch tiers.

Q1·DEEP edge

75–80%60-day hit rate

+11%mean 60-day return

From a 49-stock × 5-year backtest.

Q1 edge

64–67%60-day hit rate

+5%mean 60-day return

Shallower tier — lower, but still positive, expectancy.

What this is not

This is scanner output, not a recommendation. It describes structure derived from public prices. It does not account for news, fundamentals, or your risk. Always do your own work.