Daily Market Profile scan · Nifty 50

The index is -10.3% from its 6-month POC.

24 of 50 Nifty constituents are trading below value today — 4 of them deeply oversold. Here's the full structural picture: spot vs POC, value areas, and the mean-reversion tiers.

Data as of 11 Jun 2026 close (IST)

Last updated 11 Jun 2026, 12:35 IST

📁 Archived snapshot. See today's scan →

Nifty 50 spot

23,297.0

last close

6-month POC

25,693.9

fair-value anchor

Distance from POC

-10.3%

deeply oversold

Oversold names

24 / 50

4 deeply oversold

View full Nifty 50 detail — POC chart, value area & signal history →

📊 Today's read

Nifty at 23,297 sits −10.3% below its 6M POC (25,694) — a Q1_DEEP read on the index itself. RBI held the repo at 5.25% on Jun 5 (third consecutive hold) and raised FY27 CPI forecast to 5.1% (from 4.6%) citing the Iran-war crude surge. Tape stress is broad: 5 Q1_DEEP + 20 Q1 = 25/49 names oversold, with deepest dislocations in IT (TCS at −50% from 6M POC) and BFSI (HDFCBANK −22.6%). HDFC Bank's MCLR hike on Jun 8 — a NIM tailwind despite the RBI pause — is the cleanest microstructure signal that the rate-cut window is closed for now. Setup quality skews toward Q1_DEEP holdouts in BFSI/insurance over Q1 names with weaker tier-fwd60d.

Nifty 50 POC distance heatmap, 11 Jun 2026 — Each tile shows a constituent's distance from its 6-month POC. Cooler/deeper = more oversold.

Oversold watch — Q1 & Q1·DEEP

Constituents in the oversold quantile tiers, deepest first. These are the names the mean-reversion method watches. "Setup" is position-blind backtest-tier quality, not a recommendation. Stats are historical, not predictions.

#	Stock	Signal	Setup	Spot	6M POC	% from POC	Upside to POC	Value area (VAL–VAH)	Hist 60d hit	Hist 60d ret	Opt liq
1	TCS	Q1 · DEEP	STRONG	₹2,141	₹3,218	-50.3%	+50.3%	2,431.4 – 3,354.4	53%	+1.5%	HIGH
2	HDFCBANK	Q1 · DEEP	STRONG	₹754.5	₹924.9	-22.6%	+22.6%	763.6 – 956.8	65%	+4.4%	HIGH
3	SBILIFE	Q1 · DEEP	STRONG	₹1,726	₹2,025	-17.3%	+17.3%	1,860.6 – 2,103.0	74%	+7.5%	MED
4	SHRIRAMFIN	Q1 · DEEP	MODERATE	₹888.9	₹1,000.0	-12.5%	+12.5%	936.8 – 1,069.1	68%	+9.2%	LOW
5	HCLTECH	Q1	—	₹1,111	₹1,355	-21.9%	+21.9%	1,270.7 – 1,694.9	65%	+7.0%	MED
6	ETERNAL	Q1	BROKEN	₹236.8	₹284.8	-20.3%	+20.3%	244.6 – 299.6	46%	-6.6%	LOW
7	WIPRO	Q1	—	₹177.8	₹203.6	-14.5%	+14.5%	176.2 – 233.9	48%	+1.1%	MED
8	HDFCLIFE	Q1	—	₹547.9	₹604.0	-10.3%	+10.3%	543.0 – 726.0	48%	+3.0%	MED
9	RELIANCE	Q1	STRONG	₹1,273	₹1,402	-10.1%	+10.1%	1,328.9 – 1,457.9	72%	+9.7%	HIGH
10	BAJAJFINSV	Q1	LOW	₹1,654	₹1,776	-7.4%	+7.4%	1,628.3 – 2,000.9	71%	+13.3%	MED
11	ULTRACEMCO	Q1	—	₹10,924	₹11,694	-7.1%	+7.1%	10,891.6 – 12,497.1	76%	+7.4%	MED
12	TATASTEEL	Q1	—	₹197.5	₹210.2	-6.5%	+6.5%	190.6 – 217.4	64%	+7.1%	MED
13	HINDUNILVR	Q1	—	₹2,155	₹2,290	-6.3%	+6.3%	2,184.8 – 2,427.1	68%	+4.3%	HIGH
14	SBIN	Q1	STRONG	₹1,006	₹1,068	-6.2%	+6.2%	972.5 – 1,114.4	82%	+8.7%	HIGH
15	TATACONSUM	Q1	—	₹1,114	₹1,180	-5.9%	+5.9%	1,098.6 – 1,202.7	78%	+9.9%	LOW
16	ITC	Q1	—	₹281.8	₹296.2	-5.1%	+5.1%	285.3 – 319.7	60%	+2.6%	HIGH
17	ONGC	Q1	—	₹252.4	₹264.9	-4.9%	+4.9%	258.5 – 297.7	59%	+3.9%	MED
18	LT	Q1	—	₹3,882	₹4,056	-4.5%	+4.5%	3,815.9 – 4,183.8	70%	+4.6%	HIGH
19	NTPC	Q1	—	₹351.7	₹367.4	-4.5%	+4.5%	357.0 – 405.1	63%	+3.9%	MED
20	POWERGRID	Q1	—	₹287.6	₹300.4	-4.4%	+4.4%	280.9 – 319.8	58%	+2.8%	MED
21	M&M	Q1	—	₹3,000	₹3,128	-4.3%	+4.3%	2,938.6 – 3,508.1	60%	+8.8%	LOW
22	BHARTIARTL	Q1	—	₹1,789	₹1,831	-2.4%	+2.4%	1,759.4 – 1,997.5	56%	+3.9%	HIGH
23	COALINDIA	Q1	—	₹447.2	₹457.3	-2.3%	+2.3%	427.3 – 474.0	58%	+1.4%	MED
24	BEL	Q1	—	₹403.5	₹412.5	-2.2%	+2.2%	404.8 – 445.0	50%	+1.9%	LOW

Today's read on the deepest setups

Position-blind notes on the most-stretched names — what the structure shows, recent news, and the key risk. Setup quality only; not a recommendation and not portfolio advice.

TCSSTRONG

Structure: Q1_DEEP at −50.3% from 6M POC (deepest dislocation in the universe); printed 52w low ₹2,132.80 yesterday. Q1_DEEP tier reference: ~75-80% hit / +11% mean fwd60d, though TCS-specific fwd60d is muted at +1.5%.

News: 31st AGM Jun 9 — all resolutions clean. Canada Life 10-year AI-led transformation deal (Jun 8) + GVIC business unit launch + $1.8B annualised AI services revenue. Ex-div ₹31 on Jun 12 (1.45% of price — SMALL).

Key risk: Holding at 52w low — a break amplifies drawdown before Q1 FY27 results (~Jul 10-14).

HDFCBANKSTRONG

Structure: Q1_DEEP at −22.6% from 6M POC. Hist Q1 hit 65%, fwd60d +4.4% — tier-mean setup with positive bank-NIM microstructure.

News: Raised MCLR by 10 bps Jun 8 across tenors despite RBI hold — bank can reprice loans up while deposits stay capped. Pure NIM tailwind.

Key risk: BFSI sector sell-off on Iran-war risk-off would drag the name despite the NIM positive.

SBILIFESTRONG

Structure: Q1_DEEP at −17.3% from 6M POC. Hist Q1 hit 74%, fwd60d +7.5% — clean tier-mean setup. Q4 FY26 new business premium +20% YoY, solvency 1.90 vs 1.50 regulatory.

News: IRDAI ordered transfer of Sahara India Life's insurance business to SBI Life on Jun 2 (~2 lakh policies) — one-time AUM/scale positive.

Key risk: Insurance regulatory news risk (low probability).

SHRIRAMFINMODERATE

Structure: Q1_DEEP at −12.5% from 6M POC. Hist Q1 hit 68%, fwd60d +9.2%. Q4 FY26 net profit +41% YoY (₹3,014 cr), final dividend ₹6 already done.

News: Investor meetings Jun 5 + Jun 8 (Mumbai + ICICI Securities). Mojo downgraded to Hold (from Buy in April).

Key risk: Option liquidity LOW — execution friction on any spread.

BAJAJFINSVLOW

Structure: Q1 at −7.4%. Highest fwd60d rank in the Q1 tier (+13.3%) on paper but 6M profile is bimodal_6M = True and 20d POC drift is −13.2% (POC migrating down).

News: Rajiv Bajaj stepped down from Board on Jun 9 (governance churn). FY26 NP +10.5% to ₹9,801 cr. Dividend ₹1.50 + special ₹0.20 (100-yr Bajaj Group) — record date Jun 30. AGM Jul 31.

Key risk: Bimodal profile means POC tiebreak is fragile; structural overhang from board transitions.

SBINSTRONG

Structure: Q1 at −6.2%. Hist Q1 hit 82% (top rank), fwd60d +8.7%. AGM Jun 18, but dividend ₹17.35 already paid Jun 4 (record May 16 done).

News: SBI transferred ₹8,813 cr dividend payout to GoI Jun 9 — routine. MCLR repricing cycle helps NIM.

Key risk: Nothing event-driven near-term; pure setup play.

RELIANCESTRONG

Structure: Q1 at −10.1%. Hist Q1 hit 72%, fwd60d +9.7% — second-highest Q1 rank. 52w low ₹1,257.50 on Jun 9. Cautious FY27 outlook reflecting West Asia war.

News: Meta data-center deal announced Jun 10 → stock spiked ~2% before fading. 49th AGM Jun 19 — Jio IPO update is the catalyst. Dividend ₹6 already paid (record Jun 5).

Key risk: AGM disappointment on Jio IPO timing → −3 to −5% on the day. Iran war escalation hits energy first.

ETERNALBROKEN

Structure: Q1 at −20.3% (deep) BUT hist fwd60d is NEGATIVE at −6.6% — the only Q1 name with negative expected edge in the 49-stock × 5y backtest. The signal does not apply on this name.

News: No catalysts visible.

Key risk: Structural drag — the mean-reversion edge that holds for the rest of the universe is absent here.

Events on the radar

Dividends, earnings and macro dates that can move these names or their option pricing over the next ~90 days.

Stock	Event	Date	Type	Magnitude	Impact
TCS	Ex-dividend ₹31/share (final FY26)	Jun 12, 2026	Dividend	SMALL	1.45% of price — spread auto-adjusts; near-neutral net impact on bull-spread economics.
TCS	Q1 FY27 results	~Jul 10-14, 2026	Earnings	LARGE	Designed catalyst for the 26JUL series; expect IV crush + directional move.
SBIN	71st AGM	Jun 18, 2026	AGM	SMALL	Dividend already paid; agenda routine — informational only.
RELIANCE	49th AGM (Jio IPO update expected)	Jun 19, 2026	AGM	MEDIUM	Mid-26JUN-window — potential vol pop ±3% on Jio IPO commentary.
BAJAJFINSV	Dividend record date (₹1.50 + ₹0.20 special)	Jun 30, 2026	Dividend	SMALL	~0.1% of price — strike-neutral. Informational.
HDFCBANK	Q1 FY27 results	~Jul 18-22, 2026	Earnings	LARGE	Designed catalyst for the 26JUL series; expect IV expansion into the print.
Macro	Iran war / crude trajectory	Ongoing	Geopolitical	LARGE	Drives the RBI's FY27 CPI revision (5.1% from 4.6%); IV-positive across the index complex.

Full Nifty 50 scan

Every constituent, sorted most-oversold to most-extended. Spot, 6-month POC and value-area bounds for all 50 names.

Show all 50 names

Stock	Signal	Spot	6M POC	% from POC	VAL	VAH
TCS	Q1 · DEEP	₹2,141	₹3,218	-50.3%	₹2,431	₹3,354
HDFCBANK	Q1 · DEEP	₹754.5	₹924.9	-22.6%	₹763.6	₹956.8
HCLTECH	Q1	₹1,111	₹1,355	-21.9%	₹1,271	₹1,695
ETERNAL	Q1	₹236.8	₹284.8	-20.3%	₹244.6	₹299.6
SBILIFE	Q1 · DEEP	₹1,726	₹2,025	-17.3%	₹1,861	₹2,103
WIPRO	Q1	₹177.8	₹203.6	-14.5%	₹176.2	₹233.9
SHRIRAMFIN	Q1 · DEEP	₹888.9	₹1,000.0	-12.5%	₹936.8	₹1,069
HDFCLIFE	Q1	₹547.9	₹604.0	-10.3%	₹543.0	₹726.0
RELIANCE	Q1	₹1,273	₹1,402	-10.1%	₹1,329	₹1,458
BAJAJFINSV	Q1	₹1,654	₹1,776	-7.4%	₹1,628	₹2,001
ULTRACEMCO	Q1	₹10,924	₹11,694	-7.1%	₹10,892	₹12,497
TATASTEEL	Q1	₹197.5	₹210.2	-6.5%	₹190.6	₹217.4
JIOFIN	MID	₹228.1	₹242.4	-6.3%	₹227.0	₹263.8
HINDUNILVR	Q1	₹2,155	₹2,290	-6.3%	₹2,185	₹2,427
SBIN	Q1	₹1,006	₹1,068	-6.2%	₹972.5	₹1,114
TATACONSUM	Q1	₹1,114	₹1,180	-5.9%	₹1,099	₹1,203
ITC	Q1	₹281.8	₹296.2	-5.1%	₹285.3	₹319.7
ONGC	Q1	₹252.4	₹264.9	-4.9%	₹258.5	₹297.7
BAJFINANCE	MID	₹876.0	₹918.1	-4.8%	₹867.5	₹985.6
LT	Q1	₹3,882	₹4,056	-4.5%	₹3,816	₹4,184
NTPC	Q1	₹351.7	₹367.4	-4.5%	₹357.0	₹405.1
POWERGRID	Q1	₹287.6	₹300.4	-4.4%	₹280.9	₹319.8
M&M	Q1	₹3,000	₹3,128	-4.3%	₹2,939	₹3,508
INFY	MID	₹1,120	₹1,148	-2.4%	₹1,066	₹1,503
BHARTIARTL	Q1	₹1,789	₹1,831	-2.4%	₹1,759	₹1,998
COALINDIA	Q1	₹447.2	₹457.3	-2.3%	₹427.3	₹474.0
BEL	Q1	₹403.5	₹412.5	-2.2%	₹404.8	₹445.0
ICICIBANK	MID	₹1,325	₹1,346	-1.6%	₹1,268	₹1,429
TRENT	MID	₹2,717	₹2,731	-0.5%	₹2,547	₹2,889
TITAN	MID	₹4,065	₹4,086	-0.5%	₹3,937	₹4,293
INDIGO	MID	₹4,496	₹4,514	-0.4%	₹4,129	₹4,872
MAXHEALTH	MID	₹1,017	₹1,014	+0.3%	₹958.9	₹1,060
TECHM	MID	₹1,467	₹1,459	+0.5%	₹1,317	₹1,584
JSWSTEEL	MID	₹1,279	₹1,273	+0.5%	₹1,175	₹1,302
DRREDDY	MID	₹1,282	₹1,271	+0.9%	₹1,240	₹1,337
EICHERMOT	MID	₹7,182	₹7,119	+0.9%	₹6,860	₹7,421
MARUTI	MID	₹13,194	₹13,038	+1.2%	₹12,242	₹15,043
SUNPHARMA	MID	₹1,802	₹1,778	+1.3%	₹1,666	₹1,823
KOTAKBANK	MID	₹395.5	₹380.3	+3.8%	₹345.5	₹421.0
CIPLA	MID	₹1,383	₹1,326	+4.1%	₹1,267	₹1,460
BAJAJ-AUTO	MID	₹10,204	₹9,781	+4.1%	₹8,817	₹9,916
AXISBANK	MID	₹1,336	₹1,270	+4.9%	₹1,224	₹1,352
TMPV	MID	₹377.5	₹356.2	+5.6%	₹335.6	₹382.5
GRASIM	MID	₹3,100	₹2,833	+8.6%	₹2,680	₹2,963
NESTLEIND	Q5	₹1,431	₹1,306	+8.7%	₹1,161	₹1,379
APOLLOHOSP	MID	₹8,503	₹7,747	+8.9%	₹6,946	₹7,822
HINDALCO	MID	₹1,032	₹932.9	+9.6%	₹834.0	₹1,034
ASIANPAINT	Q5	₹2,689	₹2,424	+9.9%	₹2,354	₹2,797
ADANIPORTS	Q5	₹1,813	₹1,376	+24.1%	₹1,301	₹1,614
ADANIENT	Q5	₹2,950	₹2,229	+24.4%	₹1,777	₹2,411

Nifty 50 sector stress map, 11 Jun 2026 — Sector stress — share of each sector trading below value.

How to read this

A daily volume-and-time Market Profile scan of the Nifty 50. We measure how far each stock trades from its 6-month Point of Control (POC) — the price where the most activity has occurred — and flag mean-reversion setups.

POC — Point of Control

The single price with the highest traded volume/time over the last 6 months. It acts as a fair-value magnet: price tends to revert toward it.

Value Area (VAL–VAH)

The band containing ~70% of activity, from Value-Area-Low to Value-Area-High. Trading below VAL means a stock is stretched below where the market agreed on value.

Q1 / Q1·DEEP signals

Quantile of a stock's distance-from-POC vs its own history. Q1 = unusually oversold; Q1·DEEP = in the deepest tail. These are the mean-reversion watch tiers.

Q1·DEEP edge

75–80%60-day hit rate

+11%mean 60-day return

From a 49-stock × 5-year backtest.

Q1 edge

64–67%60-day hit rate

+5%mean 60-day return

Shallower tier — lower, but still positive, expectancy.

What this is not

This is scanner output, not a recommendation. It describes structure derived from public prices. It does not account for news, fundamentals, or your risk. Always do your own work.